BloggingStocks

Apple could create headaches for Garmin and TomTom

Brian White — 2008-07-01T16:17:00+00:00

Filed under: Products and services, Apple Inc (AAPL), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

You would think that companies making standalone GPS devices would be making bank right now. The devices that never let you get lost when driving are important to many travelers, especially when you don't want to fumble with maps, let alone get lost and waste a bunch of expensive gas getting back on track. Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN), one of the leading GPS makers, though, has seen tough times recently. Its shares have declined 56% recently. Why I'm not sure. I do know that it has nothing to do with Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that's about to be released in a few weeks.

Apple's new 3G iPhone will have embedded GPS, which will make the gadget all the more useful. Regardless, though, will consumers be using their iPhones as replacements for full GPS devices in all those vehicles? Unless there is a decent vehicle mount kit available, it's hard to believe so. The iPhone does have the best chance at displacing more units from Garmin and other GPS makers like TomTom in the car navigation arena, but the entire GPS experience is what some folks probably forget about.

If you've ever used a GPS navigation program installed on a normal cellphone or smartphone, does it works seamlessly like a standalone product? Can you take and make calls while the GPS continues working in the background, giving you all those voice directions? What makes standalone GPS devices so valuable is that they work even when we're multitasking with phone calls. That's the kicker: the first time you miss a direction by voice because you're busy chatting on the phone, a GPS solution on top of a cellphone -- at least for driving purposes -- would become useless to the average consumer. I doubt Apple's upcoming solution will be this drab, but I continue to see a bright future for standalone GPS device manufacturers (although profits will continue to dwindle). Apple, as always, is not the only game in town. It will still be big for non-driving GPS uses, though.

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Ford (F) drops as price target is cut

Brent Archer — 2008-06-26T13:52:00+00:00

Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Options, Technical Analysis, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Ford (NYSE: F) shares are falling today after Goldman Sachs cut his price target on the stock to $5 from $8. The broker maintained a "neutral" rating on Ford, but moved General Motors (NYSE: GM) to a sell. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on Ford.

After hitting a one-year high of $9.70 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $4.95 in March. This morning, F opened at $5.07. So far today the stock has hit a low of $4.94 and a high of $5.16. As of 12:30, F is trading at $5.03, down $0.22 (-4.2%). The chart for F looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $6 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in three months as long as F is below $6 at September expiration. Ford would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

F was above $6 as recently as early June, but has dropped sharply and shown resistance around $5.20 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by fewer people buying expensive cars and trucks that do not get great mileage.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in F.

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Option Update: Garmin volatility is low as shares rally 3%

Paul Foster — 2008-06-04T15:20:00+00:00

Filed under: Options, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) is recently trading up $1.60 to $54.47.

Oppenheimer says: "There is a chance GRMN will elect to only slightly tweak 2008 revenue estimates on its next conference call, which would be a positive."

GRMN July call option implied volatility is at 47, puts are at 54; below its 26-week average of 58 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement. GRMN puts are more expensive than calls because GRMN is difficult to borrow.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Trade idea for Garmin (GRMN) downgrade

Brent Archer — 2008-05-19T14:21:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Options, Technical Analysis, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN) shares are falling after an analyst at Needham downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold," saying it has exceeded its $48 price target. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GRMN.

After hitting a one-year high of $125.68 in October, the stock fell to make its one-year low of $39.75 in April. This morning, GRMN opened at $49.32. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.17 and a high of $49.33. As of 1:30, GRMN is trading at $48.68, down 1.34 (-2.68%). The chart for GRMN looks neutral but improving while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $70 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in five months as long as GRMN is below $70 at October expiration. Garmin would have to rise by more than 34% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GRMN hasn't been above $70 since January and has shown resistance around $55 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July or early August) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GRMN might find around $62 where it formed a top back in March.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GRMN.

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Gas crunch hits home, ways to make your home a cash cow & most overpaid athletes - Today in Money 5/13

Allan Halprin — 2008-05-13T08:50:00+00:00

Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Wal-Mart (WMT), Money and Finance Today, Staples Inc (SPLS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Electronic Data Systems (EDS), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

In the News:

· Wal-Mart Tops Earnings Estimates; But Gives Cautious Outlook

· Hewlett-Packard to Buy EDS for $13.9 Billion

· Average Gas Prices Rise 10 Cents; Set Record at $3.72 a Gallon

· Fed Chief Bernanke Says Financial Turmoil in Markets Easing

· Staples Raises Hostile Bid for Corporate Express

· Toll Brothers Revenue Plunges 30%

· Retail Sales Down Again in April, But Not As Bad As Predicted

· Iowa Meatpacking Plant Raided in ID Theft Investigation

· Microsoft's World Wide Telescope Lets Amateur Astronomers See Cosmos Through Computer

· Older Mom & Pop Gas Pumps Can't Handle $4 Gas

Gas Crunch Hits Home
The record-high price of gasoline is putting a strain on American motorists - and spurring some to shift their habits. Here are their stories.
America's Money: Gas crunch hits home - CNNMoney.com

12 Ways to Make Your House a Cash Cow
Want to earn some extra cash? Turn your home into a money-making machine. As times get tighter, many are looking for ways to save. Here are offbeat ways to bring in cash without leaving home. These include take in renters, have yard sales, throw party sales or share your garage.
12 ways to make your house a cash cow - Bankrate.com

The Best GPS for $300 or Less
Cutthroat competition has made it possible to buy a simple, inexpensive navigation device for your car. Buy the features you need and forget the rest.
The Best GPS for $300 or Less - Kiplinger.com

4 Little-Known Credit Card Perks
Unable to return unwanted or broken items at the store? Try your credit-card issuer.
4 Credit-Card Protections Shoppers Should Know About - SmartMoney

How to Build Your Credit Score Without a Credit Card
It's often said that credit cards are a necessity to get a credit score and have any chance of securing a loan, but there are ways to do it without credit cards at all.
Build Your Credit Score Without a Credit Card - TheStreet.com

Pitfalls of Out-of-Business Sales
It's possible to snag a bargain, but you could get also stuck with a defective item you can't return. And if you have a gift card from a bankrupt store, move quickly.
The Pitfalls of Shopping the Liquidation Sales - SmartMoney.com

Slaying the Boogie Monster
It sounds like the plot for a Footloose sequel: Small-town officials try to shut down a local saloon by wielding an antiquated ban on outdoor dance halls. See how an Arizona saloon owner takes down antiquated dance ban.
Slaying the Boogie Monster - FORTUNE Small Business

Most Overpaid Athletes
Twenty pro players whose dollars don't add up. Looking at their stats over the past three years measured against their salaries show some players are very overpaid. They include Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Ichiro Suzuki, Nate Clements, Stephon Marbury and Theo Ratliff to name a few.
America's Most Overpaid Athletes - Forbes.com

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Why Garmin Ltd (GRMN) won't be rebounding soon

Timothy Sykes — 2008-05-05T10:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Bargain stocks, Stocks to Sell, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

While researching GPS maker Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ: GRMN) -- whose stock has lost two-thirds of its value in the last six months -- I can't help but pity those long-term shareholders who reject trend following and technical analysis in favor of investing for the long term. To them, it seemed like only yesterday that GPS was one of the hottest technologies around and this industry leader could do no wrong.

Well, that's usually the time to sell, just as I posted on Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) in January this year and on Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) in November last year, both before they each dropped 40% in just a few months. Because the truth is these popular technology stocks are all expectations. We're not talking Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)-type value investing here.

Sure, GPS is still hot, somewhat, but due to intense competition, margins have been evaporating, forcing analysts to lower their earnings estimates. In their latest quarter, Garmin further strengthened the bear case with spiking inventories and accounts receivable. None of that looks to change anytime soon, and even though it's got a P/E of 10, book value is all the way down near $11 per share!

I couldn't help but wonder where I'd seen this 2-year chart pattern before and then it hit me. Garmin's downfall is eerily exact-not just similar-to the Nasdaq's 2-year chart of 1999-2001, before it tanked another 50%. Obviously, that's comparing apples and oranges, but with so many stocks out there, why would you ever put yourself into one with such a reliably bearish pattern?

Basically this stock has nothing going for it. I hate buying into margin-battling companies with tons of bitter shareholders who are willing to sell into any bounce. I hate gradual downtrenders-for buying at least-and I hate people asking me what to do when they are down so much already. Not because I'm mean, but because as I stress on my blog every day-and what's helped me earn 47% over the past 6 months-is that investors need to cut their losses quickly.

Sure this stock could always come back-miracles have been known to happen--but given all these nasty variables, the odds of a big rebound anytime soon aren't there.

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund

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Earnings highlights: Exxon, GM, Time Warner, Starbucks, P&G, ADM and others

Trey Thoelcke — 2008-05-03T10:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Time Warner (TWX), Starbucks (SBUX), General Motors (GM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Kellogg Co (K), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Corning Inc (GLW), Procter and Gamble (PG), Under Armour'A' (UA), Duke Energy (DUK), Burger King Hldgs (BKC), Valero Energy (VLO), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) Q3 profits soared, beating analysts' expectations.
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) strong Q1 results met analysts' expectations.
Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) reported solid Q3 results that beat Wall Street estimates.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) beat expectations for the first quarter, sending shares up.
Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) posted better-than-expected Q1 results on the weak dollar.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) beat earnings expectations and raised its guidance.
Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) posted record sales for the ninth consecutive quarter.
Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) Q1 profits met expectations but revenues beat them.
ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) missed Q1 expectations due to narrower margins.
Garmin Ltd. (NYSE: GRMN) reported lower-than-expected earnings due to slowed demand.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) posted a smaller-than-expected loss for the first quarter.
Herbalife Ltd. (NASDAQ: HLF) posted Q1 results and announced the resignation of the president and COO.
Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) beat Q1 expectations and announced a 10% dividend increase.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) Q1 profits declined but beat analysts' expectations.
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) reported better-than-expected Q1 results and raised its 2008 outlook.

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) posted weak Q2 earnings in line with Wall Street expectations.
Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) beat Q1 expectations and reaffirmed its guidance.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) posted solid Q1 results and announced a spin-off of TWC.
Under Armour Inc. (NYSE: UA) beat Q1 expectations but lowered its full-year outlook.
Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) blew past Q1 EPS expectations despite despite profits plunging 77%.

Also, Jim Cramer lauds Procter & Gamble for its success in these tough times and Colgate-Palmolive for bouncing back after taking a hit. And Time Warner investors may have been looking for more than they got in the quarterly report.

Upcoming results to watch for include Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), and American International Group (NYSE: AIG).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Early analyst calls (GRMN) (LVS)

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-05-01T07:55:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Merrill Lynch downgraded Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) to "neutral" from "buy" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheimer downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) to "perform" from "out perform."

Jefferies & Co reaffirmed its "buy" rating on Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) after the company posted earnings according to the AP.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Closing Bell: Despite FOMC sell-off, April finally showers money

Jon Ogg — 2008-04-30T16:23:00+00:00

Filed under: After the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, General Motors (GM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Citigroup Inc. (C), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Economic data, Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Federal Reserve

If you thought the news going to be the actual FOMC cut was the key today, it wasn't. The bias and tone for more rate cuts was the most important, and the tone was not hawkish enough. Traders wanted to see a signal of the end of rate cuts, at least for now, so that oil and gold would tank and that the dollar would recover.

GDP came out and showed a +0.6% gain, meaning the official recession isn't technically here yet. Warren Buffett said it is, and he might be good enough of a judge over anyone. Regardless, this is the first positive month for the S&P after it just missed a positive month in March.

Below are the unofficial closing levels for key US index levels:

DJIA 12,818.58 (-13.36; -0.10%)
S&P500 1,385.47 (-5.47; -0.39%)
NASDAQ 2,412.80 (-13.30; -0.55%)
10YR-BOND 3.7590% (-0.066%)
52-WEEK LOWS.

Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) was upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Markets to Buy and by Cowen & Co. to Outperform. Yesterday, Buffalo Wild Wings reported strong quarter results with a 22% revenue boost and earnings meeting street expectations. Shares were up 18% to $30.74 in the final minutes of the day.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) dipped after its stock offering priced 50% higher than expected at $4.5 billion Tuesday evening. Diluting current shareholders earnings, the offering of 178.1 million shares at $25.27 attempts to combat the massive write downs and losses suffered over the last two quarters. Shares were down almost 4% to $25.32 in the final minutes of the day.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) posted narrower than expected losses today, driving the stock up. The company posted a net loss of $3.25 billion, or $5.74 per share. Excluding charges, the company showed a loss of $0.62 EPS, much better then the -$1.67 EPS estimated by Wall Street. Shares were up over 9% to $23.30 in the final minutes of the day.

Garmin Ltd. (NYSE: GRMN) reported lower than expected earnings today due to slowed demand. Guidance indicated a continued decrease in prices. Net income hit $147.8, or $0.67 EPS, lower than estimates of $0.74. Shares were down over 11% to $41.15 in the final minutes of the day.

IAC/InterActivCorp (NASDAQ: IACI)'s CEO Barry Diller announced that he wants the previously announced spin-offs of various business parts to be completed by August. Today, the internet conglomerate also reported earnings of $87.2 million, or $0.30 EPS, down from last year, but meeting expectations. Shares were up 2% at $20.87 in the final minutes of the day.

Savvis Inc. (NASDAQ: SVVS) falling to a new low after cutting 2008 revenue outlook Tuesday. It reported narrower losses than expected of $4.2 million or $0.08 EPS, beating estimates of -$0.13 EPS. Downgrades didn't exactly help. Shares were down 22% at $14.55 in the final minutes of the day.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) raised its second quarter dividend by 14% to $0.40 per share payable June 10. Last year, dividends were raised by 9%. Shares were up 2% at $93.63 in the final minutes of the day.

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Pre-market movers (GM) (ALU) (GRMN)

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-04-30T07:47:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, General Motors (GM), Alcatel-LucentADS (ALU), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

GM (NYSE:GM) is up 4% on strong earnings.

Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) is trading up over 7% on good numbers.

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) is off 8% on a weaker-than-expected forecast.

Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) is down over 5% on news that it had missed earnings estimates.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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The Week in Preview: All eyes on the Fed

Andrew Horowitz — 2008-04-27T12:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Viacom (VIA), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Automatic Data Proc (ADP), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Consolidated Edison (ED), Chipotle Mexican Grill'A' (CMG), Nortel Networks (NT), Tyson Foods'A' (TSN), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Next week is sure to be filled with fun and volatile market conditions. The highlight will be the Fed decision on key rates, due on Wednesday, April 30, following a two-day meeting. Anytime the Fed has the floor, the markets listen. Tuesday and Wednesday will be filled with speculation up until the time of the announcement of a cut or pause.

There are many possible outcomes for this meeting, as we have seen a substantial change in investor sentiment regarding the potential need for further rate cuts. The buzz on the street is for a cut of 25 basis points and then a wait-and-see attitude from there. I think that is the most likely direction.

There has been a great deal of concern that all the recent rate cuts have not provided the benefit to consumers the economy needs. Clearly, there is a fatty clog within our financial circulatory system. Traditionally, the Fed likes to see how its actions trickle into the economy before it continues too far down one path, which would argue for a pause now. Plus, the Fed does not want to run out of ammunition by cutting rates too far too fast. But there is no question that we are dealing with a more aggressive Fed than we have seen in decades, so I think we will see another small rate cut.

After the Fed announcement, earnings will again take center stage. Watch out for surprises as investors have been bidding up stocks with a vengeance. Misses have been taken in stride as investors don't seem worried about large bank failures anymore. The truth is, the Fed has created a monster with its bailout policy and I'm worried stocks are getting overpriced here.

It is going to be a busy week for earnings as the season is in full swing. Here is a day-by-day look at the week ahead at some of the opportunities investors may want to consider.

Monday April 28

Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) will be reporting. While this is not an exceptionally exciting report, it is one that will help to provide insight of just how bad the food crisis is and how the corn shortage is effecting profits. Last week we saw a considerable take-down for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) after it explained its outlook. First Call is expecting only $.01 EPS on $6.69 billion revenue as compared to EPS of $.19 for the same quarter last year.

Fair Issac Corp. (NYSE: FIC) has been in the hot seat as it is the company that created the FICO score. You know, the beloved company that provides lenders your credit rating/score. There has been quite a fallout over the ability of this company to properly gauge credit risk. The chart shows a recovery pattern filling toward the January gap-down. This is similar to what we have seen for many others that have rocketed on earnings lately.

If FIC manages to hit earnings, shares could get a nice pop. Shares are down 40% or so since November, and this report will show us how many lenders are looking to other companies to provide the data. Competitors taking over some of FIC's business may include the likes of Equifax Inc. (NYSE: EFX) and Experian Group Ltd. (LSE: EXPN). First Call is expecting $.43 per share on revenue of $204 million.

With that in mind, the credit card business is booming! Why you ask? People who are having trouble getting money these days are spending in a reckless manner with plastic. The winners here are Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA). Remember, neither of these companies has exposure to default as they are only processors of the transactions. There has been some talk about the negative effects that will be felt due to the Delta-Northwest merger as they will probably look to consolidate the card offering. What that really means to Visa is anyone's guess at this point.

On deck today are both Visa and Mastercard. The estimates are looking for an EPS of $1.99, up from a year ago of $1.57. Revenues are expected to come in at $1.06 billion. Visa is reporting its first earnings since it went public in March. There is a great deal of positive buzz on this name. Watch out as expectations are for a good number which could just as easily sink the stock if investors are disappointed. First Call estimates $.46 for the period.

Tuesday April 29

Food costs are out of control. Pizza inflation is the new buzzword and Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) may continue to benefit from this new paradigm. It is expected to show a 50% increase in EPS to $.70 this quarter and revenues will rise to $12.45 billion. That is a lot of food product.

The theme continues on with Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) reporting. As mentioned above, food costs are eating away at restaurant profits and there could be a big disappointment brewing for this name. Remember, the extraordinary wheat prices will hit right in their gut as margin (and margarine) compression will hurt their costs.

Wednesday April 30

All eyes will be on the Fed decision this day. Greg Ip, from The Wall Street Journal, regularly writes about the Fed outlook as well as many of the factors that go into the Fed's decision. On this subject I invited him to be a guest this week on The Disciplined Investor Podcast. This episode will be available Monday.

In other earnings, investors are looking towards the darling, now scorned, Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) for direction on its future earnings path. Estimates for an increase of $.11 over same quarter last year will need to be met for investors to once again look kindly on this name. Shares have been beaten down with ferocity since January and stand at about 1/3 their value since the November 2007 high.

Thursday, May 1

Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) will report and give us a good look at the employment situation from a corporate standpoint. The ADP report will provide a look back, but there may be some tidbits within the conference call that may give us a look ahead. Estimates are for $.75 per share and $2.4 billion of revenue.

Exxon Mobile Corp. (NYSE: XOM) also reports today. The last few earnings releases have been whoppers. There is no reason to think that the total revenue number won't be gigantic. The street is looking for $124.43 billion for the period. Did someone say windfall tax?

Friday May 2

A lighter earnings day by far. Con Ed, Nortel, Viacom, take your pick. Nothing too exciting. Stay at home in your PJs.

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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions of some of the stocks mentioned as of the publish date.

Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and author of the bestseller The Disciplined Investor: Essential Strategies for Success. See The Disciplined Investor Blog.

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Garmin (GRMN) falls as TomTom-TeleAtlas deal nears approval

Brent Archer — 2008-04-22T15:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Deals, Bad news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Garmin Ltd. (Nasdaq: GRMN) shares are falling on news that chief competitor TomTom is expected to win regulatory approval from the European Commission to acquire its main supplier, TeleAtlas. TomTom beat out Garmin for TeleAtlas in a bidding war last year. The move could hurt Garmin, who receives some mapping data from TeleAtlas. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GRMN.

After hitting a one-year high of $125.68 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $42.01 in April. This morning, GRMN opened at $44.89. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.72 and a high of $44.90. As of 2:05, GRMN is trading at $43.65, down $1.46 (-3.2%). The chart for GRMN looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two months as long as GRMN is below $60 at June expiration. Garmin would have to rise by more than 37% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GRMN hasn't been above $60 by more than a little bit since February and has shown resistance around $46 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/30) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance GRMN might find at its 50 day moving average, which is currently around $57 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GRMN.

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Analyst initiations: AAPL, DELL, IBM, XOM, GRMN ...

Eric Buscemi — 2008-04-22T11:33:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Apple Inc (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Exxon Mobil (XOM), International Business Machines (IBM), Chevron Corp (CVX), Sun Microsystems (JAVA), Analyst initiations, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Garmin, Thomson Reuters and Heritage-Crystal Clean were today's noteworthy initiations:

Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) was initiated with a Neutral rating at JP Morgan. The firm sees risk to 2008 Street estimates given the consumer slowdown in the U.S. and potential ASP and margin pressure as channel inventory is worked down.
Morgan Stanley assumed Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) with an Underweight rating and expects revenue growth in the company's financial business to slow sharply into 2009.
William Blair believes Heritage-Crystal Clean (NASDAQ: HCCI) has the opportunity to gain market share over the next several years as a result of its differentiated parts-cleaning programs, strong sales organization, and experienced management team. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

Lehman initiated Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) with Equal Weight ratings and targets of $20 and $17 and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) with Overweight ratings and targets of $195, $144 and $59, respectively.
Pacific Growth started Spectranetics (NASDAQ: SPNC) with a Neutral rating.
Merrill reinstated Chevron (NYSE: CVX), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) with Buy ratings and price targets of $110, $105 and $125, respectively.

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Analyst initiations: DSX, AVNX and FSIN

Eric Buscemi — 2008-04-18T11:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Mattel, Inc (MAT), Analyst initiations, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Diana Shipping, Avanex and Fushi International were today's noteworthy initiations:

Stephens believes Diana Shipping's (NYSE: DSX) current share price represents an attractive entry point for investors. Shares were started with an Overweight rating and $40 target.
Avanex (NASDAQ: AVNX) was initiated with a Buy rating at Merriman. The firm believes the recovery in optical that began in late 2005 is in a relatively early stage and that new product introductions and strong optical trends will drive growth and leverage.
Jefferies assumed coverage of Fushi International (NASDAQ: FSIN) with a Buy rating and $20 target and believes the telecom infrastructure build-out in emerging markets, particularly China, and high copper prices continue to create opportunities for the company.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

Mattel (NYSE: MAT) was assumed at Caris with an Above Average rating and $25 target.
Lehman initiated Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) with an Equal Weight rating.
Keefe Bruyette initiated Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) with an Outperform ratin gand $28 target.

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Early analyst calls: NOK, GRMN, GPS, CSCO

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-04-18T07:57:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nokia Corp. (NOK), Gap Inc (GPS), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

UBS downgraded Nokia (NYSE: NOK) from "buy" to "neutral," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports Lehman initiated Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) as "equal weight."

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) started as "buy" at Lazard, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS) was cut to "equalweight" from "overweight."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Crocs' warning was in its chart, see what others fit the pattern

Timothy Sykes — 2008-04-15T08:26:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Dell (DELL), Intel (INTC), Technical Analysis, Crocs Inc (CROX), Stocks to Sell, Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Damn, it feels good to be right! Back in mid-February, when I warned investors not to buy Crocs Inc (Nasdaq: CROX) after its "big" drop, I had no idea they were going to warn and get crushed again so soon (see, Steven Mallas' post from last night). But the stock's chart pattern told me the odds favored the bear case.

So, you know what? I'm not particularly surprised. Because I play the odds based on what the charts tell me. Sure you're probably sick of hearing that from me, but for better or worse -- and considering my 21% return in the first quarter of 2008 by staying true to the charts, it's been mostly better -- this is my my experienced-based belief.

No matter the stock -- whether you're talking Google Inc (Nasdaq: GOOG) or Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB), the oil, technology or retail industries, the time of year when it pays to be bullish, analyst expectations (they only get it right 30% of the time) or the market cheerleaders promoting crazy price targets like this one on Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL) --if the chart is too steep, I'm wary. If the chart is downtrending, I'm short-biased.

A lot of fundamental investors disagree, saying the stock market isn't that simple. But lately, the people who believe in valuation over charting are going down with the ship -- no matter that they're CNBC regulars!

But patting myself on the back doesn't help you all, so I focused on some stocks that have similar chart patterns to Crocs -- before this latest drop -- to see what other stocks to avoid. Here is my list:

Dell Inc (Nasdaq: DELL)

Garmin Ltd (Nasdaq: GRMN)

Synaptics Inc (Nasdaq: SYNA)

E*Trade Financial Corp (Nasdaq: ETFC)

Intel Corp (Nasdaq: INTC)

Six Flags Inc (NYSE: SIX)

And, those are just from some quick analysis! There are tons more, and I'll detail them in a future post. But for Crocs-sake, don't be caught dead holding any of those stocks going into earnings. Sure, they could surprise and their stocks surge, but the charts show that the odds are against that happening.

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund

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Analyst downgrades: HSY, DNA and GRMN

Eric Buscemi — 2008-04-11T11:45:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Hershey Co (HSY), Genentech Inc (DNA), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Hershey Foods, Genentech and Garmin were today's noteworthy downgrades:

Bernstein downgraded Hershey Foods (NYSE: HSY) to Market Perform from Outperform, citing commodity cost pressures & slowing volume growth.
Thomas Weisel downgraded Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Market Weight from Overweight after the company reported Q1 results, due to Avastin growth concerns and a lack of meaningful drivers of long-term revenue growth until 2009.
Oppenheimer cut Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Perform from Outperform on concerns regarding PND pricing and the company's profitability dynamics.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) was downgraded at Goldman to Neutral from Buy and to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
Baird downgraded Millennium Pharma (NASDAQ: MLNM) to Neutral from Outperform.
JP Morgan lowered Total SA (NYSE: TOT) to Neutral from Overweight.

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Closing Bell: Housing, FOMC Minutes, earning fears all culprits for a weaker day

Jon Ogg — 2008-04-08T16:46:00+00:00

Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Washington Mutual (WM), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

If you wanted to look for the blame-game on why stocks listed lower most of the day, you could blame pending home sales at lows, higher oil prices, and even the FOMC minutes hinting at recession without saying "recession." We also saw the White House say it couldn't endorse the current structure of the proposed housing bill.

The truth is, Wall Street and Main Street are also coming to grips with the fact that we are about to get earnings (and guidance) from companies that we can only hope is mixed. Otherwise we just have to hope for "less-bad" news. Get ready for the legacy airline sector's low P/E and low Price to Book values to disappear completely. Below are the unofficial closing bell index prices:

Dow 12,576.44 (-35.99; -0.29%)
S&P 500 1,365.54 (-7.00; -0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,348.76 (-16.07; -0.68%)
10YR-TBond 3.558% (+0.002%)
Full 52-week lows.
See Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls.

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) saw shares fall almost 5% to $6.03 after it issued an earnings and revenue warning on Monday after the close. Had it not announced a major layoff plan, this would have been far worse. So much for this "growth story."

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) saw shares fall by almost 2% to $152.84 after America's favorite stock was downgraded to "Underperform" from "Market Perform" at Morgan Keegan.

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) saw it shares hit another 8% to $48.47, under its prior 52-week lows on what should have already been seen. TomTom's earnings warning and a subsequent untimely downgrade out of Soleil are the culprits.

The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD) saw a bloodbath today after its loan guarantee company called The Education Resources Institute filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Just when you thought student loan companies were looking safer. One thing we'd note on this though, student loans cannot be wiped off your slate in a bankruptcy filing, so they never go away. Shares fell by 36% to $4.88.

NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRI) saw its shares rise a sharp 24% to $18.59 after the company upped its revenues, named a new CEO, and after a boutique called Boenning & Scattergood upgraded the stock. part of the reason for the pop, and perhaps the largest reason for the extreme gain, was the short interest of more than 20 million shares after the stock had sold off almost 80% from highs.

Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE: WM) did get a $7 billion financing pact from private equity firm Texas Pacific, or TPG, and others. This financing is more like takeunder financing with shares essentially being bought at $8.75. WaMu shares fell by 10% to $11.81 after a strong performance yesterday. This might actually be a win when you consider the discount that the current new share buyers are getting.

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Before the bell: SBUX, NKE, AAPL, AXP, WFC, WM, GRMN ...

Melly Alazraki — 2008-04-08T08:37:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Apple Inc (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), American Express (AXP), Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Bank of New York (BK), NYSE Euronext (NYX), NIKE, Inc'B' (NKE), Washington Mutual (WM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Polo Ralph Lauren'A' (RL), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

Before the bell: Stocks lower after Alcoa, AMD, ahead of housing data

Nike (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its Olympics 2008 line Monday, its largest effort for the games ever. Nike actually created products in every sport at the games despite not being an official sponsor of the games like its rival Adidas. As for the U.S. team, it will be attired in Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) garb.

If Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was upgraded Monday, today it finds itself on the flip side with a downgrade from Morgan Keegan from Market Perform to Underperform. Ummmm, contrarian is one thing, but I'm not so sure about that one. AAPL shares are down nearly 1.5% in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, according to MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs has upgraded some brokers and asset managers, but is remaining cautious on regional banks, mortgage and specialty finance and REITs. American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and several others all were upgraded to Buy. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and several others were cut to neutral.

As for Washinton Mutual (NYSE: WM), the WSJ now says its cash infusion could reach $7 billion. Meanwhile, Keefe Bruyette downgraded WM from Market Perform to Underperform.

Other notable downgrades include:
Soleil downgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) from Buy to Hold and lowered the target price from $90 to $60.
Bear Stearns lowered Novartis (NYSE: NVS) from Outperform to Peer Perform.

Last but not least for now, Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), in its ongoing effort since Schultz returned to the CEO role to spur sales especially in the U.S., will start serving up a new "everyday" brew Tuesday. To mark the launch of the "everyday" brew, Starbucks will give away free 8 oz. cups of Pike Place Roast at more than 7,000 U.S. stores beginning at 12 p.m. Tuesday for half an hour.

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Closing Bell: Stocks survive Bernanke testimony & weak jobs

Jon Ogg — 2008-04-03T16:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), eBay (EBAY), Research in Motion (RIMM), Garmin Ltd (GRMN)

While the markets were up at the end of the trading day, there would be no other way to describe the day besides boring. The good news is that boring days are needed after periods of major volatility.

Today's news could have easily been dominated by a rise in weekly jobless claims hitting a high not seen since September 2005, with a reading of 407,000. The market was only looking for 365,000 to 375,000. But taking the center stage were Ben Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Alan Schwartz all defending the bailout and buyout Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) in front of Congressional hearings for a second day. Below are the unofficial closing prices for today's US exchange levels

DJIA 12,626.03 (+20.20; +0.16%)
S&P500 1,369.30 (+1.77; +0.13%)
NASDAQ 2,363.30 (+1.90; +0.08%)
10YR-TBond 3.591% (+0.008)
52-week lows

Shares of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) held up better than they could have since shares fell only less than 3% to $24.23. UBS downgraded the networking giant this morning. eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) actually fell into negative territory after the stock got raised to Buy rating from Merrilll Lynch this morning; shares fell about 0.1% to $31.60. See full TOP-10 pre-market analyst calls.

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) was one of the more interesting biotech stocks today, even if it didn't garner the most volume. The company secured an institutional investor for $47 million at a substantial premium to yesterday's close in a financing that will give it more breathing room while it tries to get Provenge approved. Shares closed up almost 4% at $5.28.

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) was the disappointment of the day after the CFO gave an interview, although much of this looks already priced in on a weak consumer and weak discretionary spending. Shares closed down over 6% to $52.81.

MEMC Electonics Materials (NYSE: WFR) gave a surprise when it issued an earnings warning this morning, although shares rose considerably as Wall Street is trusting the company that this is from closed facilities from maintenance issues. That's good, because otherwise you could have tried to deduct that the solar materials it supplies was peaking. Shares fell more than 3% to $73.76, although they were down 10% pre-market.

Research-in-Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) was the earnings winner today after the company beat earnings metrics yet again after yesterday's close. Its Blackberry is looking recession proof too. Shares rose almost 6% to $122.58.

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